A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
